First Round Matchups
#1 UVA vs. #16 UMBC
Every 1 seed will advance this year. Even with an injury to a key player, UVA will advance to the next round.
Winner: UVA
#8 Creighton vs. #9 Kansas State
These two teams are extremely similar in almost every way except for pace. Creighton is a very fast paced team and Kansas State is a very slow paced team. Both have very efficient offenses and pass the ball well, but Creighton is a great 3 point shooting team and Kansas State is not. Both teams defend the 3 point line well and rarely turn the ball over. Kansas State is great at getting steals.
Winner: Kansas State - They will win because they will slow the game down, win the turnover battle and defend the 3 point line well. Creighton does not have anyone who can consistently generate free throws...Kansas state does.
#5 Kentucky vs. #12 Davidson
These two teams are very different from each other and their strengths and weaknesses act as counters.
Davidson is an extremely slow paced team who passes very well and has an extremely efficient offense that takes and makes a ton of 3's. They have a roughly average defense that can't block shots or force steals. They are elite defensive rebounders and rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Davidson has 3 players who are true scoring threats and one player who is a great rebounder. They have one player who consistently draws free throws.
Kentucky is an efficient offense that doesn't pass the ball well. They are elite offensive rebounders and take a ton of free throws. They have an elite defense, especially 3 point defense, and are great shot blockers. They foul often and rarely force steals.
Kentucky has balanced scoring with one focal point. They have 3 players who can draw free throws consistently. However, they may be missing their best rebounder and for this game which could cause them to lose their offensive rebounding dominance.
Winner: Davidson (if Vanderbilt is out) If Vanderbilt does not play, Kentucky loses a great offensive rebounder. His loss combined with Davidson's elite defensive rebounding, could neutralize one of Kentucky's biggest strengths. This one will be close either way.
#4 Arizona vs #13 Buffalo
Buffalo is a very fast paced team and Arizona is slightly below average paced. Buffalo is the classic run and gun high volume 3 point shooting team that is always an upset threat. Both teams are good 3 point shooters and have efficient overall offenses. Both have solid defenses, but Buffalo is good at defending the 3 point line. Both teams are good at blocking shots and both teams are great offensive rebounders.
Buffalo won't be able to keep up with Arizona because their 3pt shooting will be brought closer to average by Arizona's defense. Their great offensive rebounding will be somewhat negated by Arizona's elite defensive rebounding, and they have no counter for Arizona's offensive rebounding. Buffalo fouls often and Arizona is already takes a high number of Free Throws per game.
Ayton is going to get a lot of offensive rebounds and take a lot of free throws.
Winner: Arizona
#6 Miami Vs. #11 Loyola-Chicago
This is another game that could be massively impacted by an injury. Miami is an efficient offense that can shoot the 3 at an above average percentage. They have a good defense that is defends the 3 point line well. They block shots and can force steals, and rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Miami might be missing their best player who leads the team in rebounds, assists, and free throw attempts.
Loyola Chicago plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have the second most efficient offense, great ball movement, and great 3 point shooting. They have a great defense and defend the 3 point line well. They are poor offensive rebounders but are good defensive rebounders. They rarely foul and are above average at taking care of the ball and forcing steals.
Loyola has extremely balanced scoring. 6 players score 10 or more points per game. They have a player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds.
Winner: Loyola
#3 Tennessee vs. #14 Wright State
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
Wright State plays at an average pace and has an inefficient offense with poor 3 point shooting. They have a great overall defense, but are average at defending the 3 point line. They can force steals at an above average rate, but are terrible shot blockers. They rarely foul and are a great defensive rebounding team.
Wright State has 3 consistent scorers. They have two great rebounders and one elite offensive rebounder.
Winner: Tennessee- The game will be close early on, but 14 seeds that pull off upsets are great offenses that force a ton of steals.
#7 Nevada vs #10 Texas
Nevada plays at a slightly above average pace. They take and make a high number of 3's and have an overall very efficient offense that passes the ball well. They have a good defense that excels at defending 3's and they can block shots well without fouling often. They rarely turn the ball over.
Nevada has 4 players averaging over 13 points per game, one who scores 19.1 and another who scores 17.9. They have an elite rebounder and and offensive rebounder. They have two players who can consistently generate free throws and have 2 high volume three point shooters who could get hot.
Texas plays at a slightly below average pace. Their offensive efficiency is below average and they are terrible at passing the ball and shooting 3's. They have a great overall defense that defends the 3 point line well and can block shots well without fouling. They don't rarely turn the ball over.
Texas has balanced scoring with 3 players averaging roughly 12 PPG. They have one elite rebounder and one great rebounder. They have two players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds. Bamba is averaging 3.2 Blocks per game.
Winner: Nevada
#2 Cincinnati vs. #15 Georgia State
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Georgia State plays at a slow pace but takes and makes a high number of 3's. They don't pass the ball well, but overall they have an efficient offense. They have one of the best overall defenses in the country, but are only above average at defending the 3 point line. They are very good at blocking shots and forcing steals, but foul often. They rarely turn the ball over but are not very good as a team at rebounding.
Georgia state has one elite scorer who can consistently generate free throws.
Winner: Cincinnati. Cincinnati will slow down Georgia State's 3 point attack, grab offensive rebounds and shoot a ton of free throws.
Second Round Matchups
#1 UVA vs. #9 Kansas State
This is a pretty normal UVA team. They play at the slowest pace in the country, They are an efficient offense and an elite 3 point shooting team that moves the ball well. They are an elite defense and are elite at defending the 3 point line. They rarely foul or turn the ball over and are good at getting steals.
UVA lost a key player. They lost their top free throw generator, an area where they already struggled. They have one player who shoots 3's at a high volume and one player who can consistently get offensive rebounds.
Based on their team statistics, Kansas State looks like a diet UVA. They have the same strengths as UVA (minus 3 point shooting) but are slightly worse in almost every category. They are great at forcing steals.
Kansas State wont be able to take advantage of the loss of Hunter. They don't have the rebounders to capitalize on UVA's rebounding weakness. UVA is too careful with the ball to make their ability to steal a major game changer. UVA won't lose, yet.
Winner: UVA
#4 Arizona vs #12 Davidson
Davidson's slow pace won't affect Arizona too much. Davidson will try to barrage Arizona with 3's, but Arizona is just as capable at making threes and have a much more efficient overall offense. Davidson won't be able to keep Arizona off the offensive glass the whole game. Davidson will keep it close, but Arizona's rebounding dominance will carry them through to the next round.
Winner: Arizona
#11 Loyola Chicago vs. #3 Tennessee
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
Loyola Chicago plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have the second most efficient offense, great ball movement, and great 3 point shooting. They have a great defense and defend the 3 point line well. They are poor offensive rebounders but are good defensive rebounders. They rarely foul and are above average at taking care of the ball and forcing steals.
Loyola has extremely balanced scoring. 6 players score 10 or more points per game. They have a player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds.
11 seeds that tend to win in this round have someone who can generate free throws and have a dominant scorer. They are almost always dominant offensive rebounders as well. Loyola doesn't have it. Tennessee will barely escape this one.
Winner: Tennessee
#2 Cincinnati vs. #7 Nevada
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Nevada plays at a slightly above average pace. They take and make a high number of 3's and have an overall very efficient offense that passes the ball well. They have a good defense that excels at defending 3's and they can block shots well without fouling often. They rarely turn the ball over.
Nevada has 4 players averaging over 13 points per game, one who scores 19.1 and another who scores 17.9. They have an elite rebounder and and offensive rebounder. They have two players who can consistently generate free throws and have 2 high volume three point shooters who could get hot.
Nevada is good, but Cincinnati offensive rebounding and foul aversion will be the key to their win in this round.
Winner: Cincinnati
Third Round Matchups
#1 UVA vs #4 Arizona
This is where the injury will hurt UVA. A combination of losing a key player and Arizona's rebounding dominance enhanced by UVA's poor rebounding will be the deciding factor in this game.
Winner: Arizona
#2 Cincinatti vs #3 Tennessee
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
These two teams are very similar. Both of their offensive rebounds should off set over the course of the game, but Cincinnati will get extra possessions through steals and Tennessee fouls more often.
Winner: Cincinnati
South Regional Final
#4 Arizona vs #2 Cincinnati
This is a tough one to call. It's an elite offense vs. an elite defense and a good offense vs. a good defense. Cincinnati's offensive rebounding won't be enough against Arizona. Arizona is and elite offensive and defensive rebounding team. They will win the rebounding margin and get a few key extra possessions.
Winner: Arizona
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