Bracket Predictions West Region

First Round Matchups

#1 Xavier vs #16 (Play in game)

Winner: Xavier

#8 Missouri vs. #9 Florida State

Missouri is a very slow paced team that shoots a high number of 3's at a great percentage. They move the ball well, and their overall offense is above average in efficiency. They have a great defense that defends the 3 point line well and can block shots. They are a good but not great rebounding team. 

Missouri has a great scorer, and one good rebounder. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws. Michael Porter Jr can be a big game changer for this team and will give their offense another scoring threat, while also improving their overall rebounding. This team should be slightly better than their statistics indicate.

Florida State plays at an extremely fast pace. They have aa very efficient offense. They struggle to defend the 3 point line, but have a great overall defense. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in the country and tend to force steals. They are a great offensive rebounding team, but struggle to defensive rebound.

Florida State does almost everything by committee, except block shots. They have two excellent shot blockers. 

Florida State won't be able to keep up with Missouri's 3 point shooting. Their offensive rebounding advantage will be minimized with Porter's return.

Winner: Missouri

#5 Ohio State vs #12 South Dakota State

Ohio State is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense. They have a great overall defense and are roughly average at defending the 3 point line. They can block shots without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and an elite defensive rebounding team. They are good at limiting their turnovers.

Ohio State has one elite scorer. They have a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws, a player who can grab offensive rebounds, and a shot blocker. 

South Dakota State is a very fast paced team that takes an extremely high number of 3's and makes them at an elite rate. Their overall offense is efficient as well, but has poor passing. Their defense is slightly above average and doesn't foul often, but they can't block shots or force steals regularly. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in college basketball and rarely turn the ball over. They are poor offensive rebounders. 

South Dakota State has an elite scorer and rebounder who can consistently generate free throws.

It wouldn't shock me if South Dakota State wins this, but they don't fit the historical trends for extremely fast paced 12 seeds pulling off upsets due to their lack of offensive rebounding and steals.  

Winner: Ohio State

#4 Gonzaga vs #13 UNC Greensboro

Gonzaga is an average paced team with an extremely balanced an efficient offense. They are an elite defensive team that struggles to defend the 3. They are an elite rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over or fouls. 

Gonzaga has an elite rebounder who can consistently grab offensive rebounders. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws. 

UNC Greensboro is a very slow paced team that lives and dies by the 3 offensively. They are an elite rebounding team and an elite defensive team. They foul and turn the ball over often but steal the ball regularly.

UNC Greensboro has one elite rebounder, one player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, and they have a shot blocker.

If Greensboro was better at getting free throws, they'd be a great upset pick. Without that skill set, they won't beat Gonzaga

Winner: Gonzaga

#6 Houston vs. #11 San Diego State

Houston is a slow paced team that has an efficient offense with great 3 point shooting. They have one of the best defenses in college basketball and defend the 3 very well. They are an elite rebounding team, and one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They take care of the ball, but are one of the most foul heavy teams in the country.

They have an elite scorer in Rob Gray Jr who can consistently generate free throws. Houston has a player that shoots 7 3 pointers a game at 44%.  

San Diego State is an average paced team that is poor at shooting 3's , but moves the ball well and has an efficient offense. They have a poor overall defense, but excel at 3 point defense. They are a great rebounding team, but Houston is better at both offensive and defensive rebounding. They rarely do not foul or turn the ball over often.

San Diego State has very balanced scoring but no elite scorer.

Winner: Houston

#3 Michigan vs #14 Montana

Michigan is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense that takes a high number of 3's. They have good but not great defense. They are an elite defensive rebounding team that struggles to get offensive rebounds. They very rarely foul or turn the ball over.

Montana is an above average paced team that avoids shooting 3's but has an efficient offense. They take a high number of free throws and have an great defense that is average at defending 3's. They are a great offensive and defensive rebounding team that is elite at forcing steals. 

Montana comes close but Michigan wins.

Winner: Michigan

#7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Providence

Texas A&M plays at an above average pace and passes the ball very well. They have an efficeint overall offense, but struggle from 3. They have one of the top overall defenses in college basketball. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in college basketball. They are an average defensive rebounding team but an elite offensive rebounding team. They rarely foul, but don't take care of the basketball. 

A&M has two elite rebounders, two great offensive rebounders, a shot blocker, and a player who can consistently generate free throws. 

Offensively, Providence is a worse version of A&M. They have an average defense but a great 3 point defense. They are a below average rebounding team. 

Providence has a player who can consistently  grab offensive rebounds and a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws.

Winner: Texas A&M

#2 UNC vs #15 Lipscomb

UNC is better than Lipscomb in just about every statistical category, except for free throw attempts and 3 point defense. UNC rarely fouls and Lipscomb is a poor three point shooting team, essentially nullifying these UNC weaknesses.

Winner: UNC

Second Round Matchups

#1 Xavier vs # 8 Missouri

This is an Xavier team that is a better, more mature version of the 11 seed that went on a big run last year. They are one of the best offenses in the country and are elite defensive rebounders. They have good but not great defense and offensive rebounding. This Missouri team is good and Porter Jr adds a great player and a degree of unpredictability to this matchup. 

Winner: Xavier

#4 Gonzaga vs. # 5 Ohio State

Gonzaga is an average paced team with an extremely balanced an efficient offense. They are an elite defensive team that struggles to defend the 3. They are an elite rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over or fouls. 

Gonzaga has an elite rebounder who can consistently grab offensive rebounders. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws.

Ohio State is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense. They have a great overall defense and are roughly average at defending the 3 point line. They can block shots without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and an elite defensive rebounding team. They are good at limiting their turnovers.

Ohio State has one elite scorer. They have a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws, a player who can grab offensive rebounds, and a shot blocker. 

No one thing stands out, but Gonzaga is slightly better than Ohio state in most statistical categories. 

Winner: Gonzaga

#3 Michigan vs. #6 Houston

Michigan is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense that takes a high number of 3's. They have good but not great defense. They are an elite defensive rebounding team that struggles to get offensive rebounds. They very rarely foul or turn the ball over.

Houston is a slow paced team that has an efficient offense with great 3 point shooting. They have one of the best defenses in college basketball and defend the 3 very well. They are an elite rebounding team, and one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They take care of the ball, but are one of the most foul heavy teams in the country.

They have an elite scorer in Rob Gray Jr who can consistently generate free throws. Houston has a player that shoots 7 3 pointers a game at 44%.  

Just like the last matchup, Houston is just better at everything that Michigan is good at. Unless Houston fouls like crazy, Michigan should lose.

Winner: Houston

#7 Texas A&M vs #2 UNC

Texas A&M plays at an above average pace and passes the ball very well. They have an efficeint overall offense, but struggle from 3. They have one of the top overall defenses in college basketball. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in college basketball. They are an average defensive rebounding team but an elite offensive rebounding team. They rarely foul, but don't take care of the basketball. 

A&M has two elite rebounders, two great offensive rebounders, a shot blocker, and a player who can consistently generate free throws. 

UNC is a fast paced team that shoots an above average number of 3's and makes them at a great rate. They pass the ball extremely well and have a very efficient offense. They have a very good defense but are terrible at defending 3's. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and are a great defensive rebounding team. They rarely foul.

UNC has great individual players who can score, rebound, and pass; but, they don't have anyone who can consistently get free throws. 

UNC won't have the size to hang with A&M.

Winner: A&M

Third Round

#1 Xavier vs # 4 Gonzaga

Xavier will take advantage of Gonzaga's poor 3 point defense and one or more of their shooters will get hot.

Winner: Xavier

#6 Houston vs. #7 Texas A&M

This will be a low scoring game. Houston will slow down the pace, get a few key steals, and hit some threes that will become even more important with a slow pace game.

Winner: Houston

#1 Xavier vs. #6 Houston

Houston is commits the 30th most fouls in the NCAA while playing at a slow pace. Xavier already generates a ton of free throws. Houston finally hits a team that won't miss free throws. 

Winner: Xavier

 

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